Indian Journal of Community Medicine

ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Year
: 2014  |  Volume : 39  |  Issue : 4  |  Page : 223--228

Trends in average living children at the time of terminal contraception: A time series analysis over 27 years using ARIMA (p, d, q) nonseasonal model


Sachin S Mumbare1, Shriram Gosavi2, Balaji Almale2, Aruna Patil3, Supriya Dhakane2, Aniruddha Kadu4 
1 Department of Community Medicine, Ashwini Rural Medical College Hospital and Research Centre, Solapur, Maharashtra, India
2 Department of Community Medicine, Dr. Vasantrao Pawar Medical College Hospital and Research Centre, Nashik, Maharashtra, India
3 Department of Statistics, Dr. Vasantrao Pawar Medical College Hospital and Research Centre, Nashik, Maharashtra, India
4 Consultant, Quality Assurance, National Rural Health Mission, Arogya Bhavan, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India

Correspondence Address:
Dr. Sachin S Mumbare
Professor in Community Medicine, Ashwini Rural Medical College, Hospital and Research Centre, Solapur, Maharashtra
India

Background: India«SQ»s National Family Welfare Programme is dominated by sterilization, particularly tubectomy. Sterilization, being a terminal method of contraception, decides the final number of children for that couple. Many studies have shown the declining trend in the average number of living children at the time of sterilization over a short period of time. So this study was planned to do time series analysis of the average children at the time of terminal contraception, to do forecasting till 2020 for the same and to compare the rates of change in various subgroups of the population. Materials and Methods: Data was preprocessed in MS Access 2007 by creating and running SQL queries. After testing stationarity of every series with augmented Dickey-Fuller test, time series analysis and forecasting was done using best-fit Box-Jenkins ARIMA (p, d, q) nonseasonal model. To compare the rates of change of average children in various subgroups, at sterilization, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was applied. Results: Forecasting showed that the replacement level of 2.1 total fertility rate (TFR) will be achieved in 2018 for couples opting for sterilization. The same will be achieved in 2020, 2016, 2018, and 2019 for rural area, urban area, Hindu couples, and Buddhist couples, respectively. It will not be achieved till 2020 in Muslim couples. Conclusion: Every stratum of population showed the declining trend. The decline for male children and in rural area was significantly faster than the decline for female children and in urban area, respectively. The decline was not significantly different in Hindu, Muslim, and Buddhist couples.


How to cite this article:
Mumbare SS, Gosavi S, Almale B, Patil A, Dhakane S, Kadu A. Trends in average living children at the time of terminal contraception: A time series analysis over 27 years using ARIMA (p, d, q) nonseasonal model.Indian J Community Med 2014;39:223-228


How to cite this URL:
Mumbare SS, Gosavi S, Almale B, Patil A, Dhakane S, Kadu A. Trends in average living children at the time of terminal contraception: A time series analysis over 27 years using ARIMA (p, d, q) nonseasonal model. Indian J Community Med [serial online] 2014 [cited 2021 Sep 23 ];39:223-228
Available from: https://www.ijcm.org.in/article.asp?issn=0970-0218;year=2014;volume=39;issue=4;spage=223;epage=228;aulast=Mumbare;type=0