HomeAboutusEditorial BoardCurrent issuearchivesSearch articlesInstructions for authorsSubscription detailsAdvertise

  Login  | Users online: 519

   Ahead of print articles    Bookmark this page Print this page Email this page Small font sizeDefault font size Increase font size  

ORIGINAL ARTICLE Table of Contents   
Year : 2011  |  Volume : 36  |  Issue : 1  |  Page : 36-38
Modeling of H1N1 outbreak in Rajasthan: Methods and approaches

1 Institute of Health Management Research, Jaipur, India
2 Directorate of Medical Health Services, Government of Rajasthan, Rajasthan, India

Correspondence Address:
Shiv Dutt Gupta
Institute of Health Management Research, Prabhu Dayal Marg, Sanganer Airport, Jaipur-302 011, Rajasthan
Login to access the Email id

Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None

DOI: 10.4103/0970-0218.80791

Rights and Permissions

Background: Mathematical models could provide critical insights for informing preparedness and planning to deal with future epidemics of infectious disease. Objective: The study modeled the H1N1 epidemic in the city of Jaipur, Rajasthan using mathematical model for prediction of progression of epidemic and its duration. Materials and Methods: We iterated the model for various values of R 0 to determine the effect of variations in R 0 on the potential size and time-course of the epidemic, while keeping value of 1/g constant. Further simulation using varying values of 1/g were done, keeping value of R 0 constant. We attempted to fit the actual reported data and compared with prediction models. Results: As R 0 increases, incidence of H1N1 rises and reaches peak early. The duration of epidemic may be prolonged if R 0 is reduced. Using the parameters R 0 as 1.4 and 1/g as 3, it estimated that there would have been 656 actually infected individuals for each reported case. Conclusion: The mathematical modeling can be used for predicting epidemic progression and impact of control measures. Decreasing the value of R 0 would decrease the proportion of total population infected by H1N1; however, the duration of the outbreak may be prolonged.

Print this article  Email this article

  Similar in PUBMED
    Search Pubmed for
    Search in Google Scholar for
  Related articles
   Citation Manager
  Access Statistics
   Reader Comments
   Email Alert *
   Add to My List *
 * Requires registration (Free)

 Article Access Statistics
    PDF Downloaded227    
    Comments [Add]    
    Cited by others 1    

Recommend this journal


  Sitemap | What's New | Feedback | Copyright and Disclaimer
  2007 - Indian Journal of Community Medicine | Published by Wolters Kluwer - Medknow
  Online since 15th September, 2007