Close
 Indian J Med Microbiol  
 

Figure 3: Mathematical modeling of the lockdown and its impact on potential coronavirus disease-2019 cases. Forecast of the coronavirus disease-2019 epidemic in India with mitigatory social distancing. Each of the four panels shows the variation in the number of infectives with lockdowns of various durations. The 3-week lockdown starting 25 March does not prevent resurgence after its suspension as shown in panel (a). Neither does a further lockdown of 28 days spaced by a 5 days suspension, shown in panel (b). The protocols in panels (c and d), comprising three lockdowns with 5 days relaxations and a single 49 days lockdown reduce case numbers below 10. This forecast is based on all cases being symptomatic so α¯ =1. The fit parameter is β =0.0155 and we set γ =1/7

Figure 3: Mathematical modeling of the lockdown and its impact on potential coronavirus disease-2019 cases. Forecast of the coronavirus disease-2019 epidemic in India with mitigatory social distancing. Each of the four panels shows the variation in the number of infectives with lockdowns of various durations. The 3-week lockdown starting 25 March does not prevent resurgence after its suspension as shown in panel (a). Neither does a further lockdown of 28 days spaced by a 5 days suspension, shown in panel (b). The protocols in panels (c and d), comprising three lockdowns with 5 days relaxations and a single 49 days lockdown reduce case numbers below 10. This forecast is based on all cases being symptomatic so α¯ =1. The fit parameter is β =0.0155 and we set γ =1/7