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| ORIGINAL ARTICLE |
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| Year : 2011 |
Volume
: 36 | Issue : 1 | Page
: 36-38 |
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Modeling of H1N1 outbreak in Rajasthan: Methods and approaches
Shiv Dutt Gupta1, Vivek Lal1, Rohit Jain1, Om Prakash Gupta2
1 Institute of Health Management Research, Jaipur, India
2 Directorate of Medical Health Services, Government of Rajasthan, Rajasthan, India
Correspondence Address:
Shiv Dutt Gupta
Institute of Health Management Research, Prabhu Dayal Marg, Sanganer Airport, Jaipur-302 011, Rajasthan
India
DOI: 10.4103/0970-0218.80791 PMID: 21687379
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Background: Mathematical models could provide critical insights for informing preparedness and planning to deal with future epidemics of infectious disease. Objective: The study modeled the H1N1 epidemic in the city of Jaipur, Rajasthan using mathematical model for prediction of progression of epidemic and its duration. Materials and Methods: We iterated the model for various values of R 0 to determine the effect of variations in R 0 on the potential size and time-course of the epidemic, while keeping value of 1/g constant. Further simulation using varying values of 1/g were done, keeping value of R 0 constant. We attempted to fit the actual reported data and compared with prediction models. Results: As R 0 increases, incidence of H1N1 rises and reaches peak early. The duration of epidemic may be prolonged if R 0 is reduced. Using the parameters R 0 as 1.4 and 1/g as 3, it estimated that there would have been 656 actually infected individuals for each reported case. Conclusion: The mathematical modeling can be used for predicting epidemic progression and impact of control measures. Decreasing the value of R 0 would decrease the proportion of total population infected by H1N1; however, the duration of the outbreak may be prolonged. |
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